Golden Knights vs Stars Odds, Picks, and Predictions

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It could be another short Conference Final tonight in Dallas, as the Stars stare down a 3-0 series deficit vs. the Vegas Golden Knights without captain Jamie Benn, who is serving a two-game suspension.

The Stars were steaming on the moneyline late heading into Game 3, moving from -130 to -155, but coming off a shutout loss Tuesday and facing a ton of adversity to extend the series, the Knights are getting some love from bettors tonight and shortening up on the moneyline. 

Find out where my best bet lies in our NHL picks and predictions for Golden Knights vs. Stars on Thursday, May 25.

Golden Knights vs Stars Game 4 odds

Golden Knights vs Stars Game 4 predictions

Even with some more minutes possibly going to the Dallas Stars top-six thanks to Jamie Benn’s suspension and Evgenii Dadanov’s likely absence, I’m not high on Tyler Seguin and the Dallas offense in general.

The second-line winger has yet to find the scoresheet in the series, and has just one point over his last eight playoff games. He’s playing on a line with Max Domi and Joel Kiviranta at even strength, and doesn’t even get PP1 time. He’s not set up well to produce offense with his current opportunities, and the Vegas Golden Knights have been a great defensive team in the series.

Dallas leads the series in Corsi%, Fenwick%, SOG%, and even xG%, but it’s their inability to create quality scoring chances that have me fading the offense. 

Dallas averaged the fewest high-danger chances of any 16 playoff teams in the first round, and has been producing even fewer/60 in this series. Vegas is loaded with talent on the blueline and has a great defensive system run by an elite coach in Bruce Cassidy. Every goalie that has started for this team — all five of them — has produced a save percentage above .900.

Coming off a shutout and facing elimination, Dallas could be pressing. Seguin won’t even get first crack at the best offensive opportunities, as the top line of Jason Robertson, Joe Pavelski, and Roope Hintz gets those. Seguin to not record a point at -124 is my favorite play to fade the Stars’ offense in Game 4.

My best bet: Seguin Under 0.5 points (-124) 

Golden Knights vs Stars Game 4 same-game parlay

Seguin Under 0.5 points

Vegas team total Over 2.5

Robertson Over 3.5 SOG

Seguin doesn’t have the scoring opportunities that the first line has, and has recorded just one point over his last eight games (zero in the series). 

Jake Oettinger has not been a good goalie in these playoffs outside of a handful of games. He ranks as one of the worst goalies in the playoffs in goals saved above expected/60, is coming off a game where he was pulled seven minutes in, and might be wearing down with a heavy workload. 

Robertson will get chances as Dallas has been winning the possession battles and generating lots of low-danger shots on net. Hintz Over 2.5 SOG is more probable, but that pays just +375 in the SGP. With the season on the line and Dallas down a couple of forwards, it could be big minutes for Robertson, who has to show up tonight despite a poor shooting record over his last two series.

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Golden Knights vs Stars Game 4 moneyline and Over/Under analysis

Dallas opened at -130 on the moneyline in Game 3 and took a lot of late money, moving that ML to -155 ahead of puck-drop. They lost that game 4-0, had their captain suspended, pulled their No.1 goalie in the first period, may have lost Dadanov (doubtful), and could have lost the series on Tuesday.

Bettors have wagered against the Stars tonight, as Dallas has moved from -125 to as long as -115, and I wouldn’t be surprised if this game closed as a pick ‘em. 

It’s hard to back the Stars with the play of Oettinger in net. He has a GAA north of 3.00 and a SV% below .900 in the playoffs. He’s posted a sub-.900 SV% in nine of his 16 games, and currently sits 18th of 21 goalies (minimum four games) in goals saved above expected/60.

The Dallas goalie will also be playing in his 79th game of the year, which is by far the most he’s played in one year of his professional career. He played 58 games last year, and 29 games the season before that.

His counterpart, Adin Hill, is playing just his 28th game of the year, has a sub-2.00 GAA and a .940 SV% in the playoffs over eight games, and ranks fourth of 21 goalies in GSAx/60. Vegas is just a great team at insulating their goalie, and doesn’t allow a lot of high-danger chances.

There is a reason why Robertson has just four goals in the postseason, and that’s because quality scoring opportunities dry up in the postseason. Dallas is producing 7.71 high-danger chances per game at 5-on-5 in the series, which is the fewest of any team in any series of the entire playoffs. Many talked about how good a defensive team Dallas is, but the Knights have proved to be the better of the two in this series. 

I’m on the Vegas team total Over 2.5 at -127, but would only play that to -135. At -140, I would rather take Vegas on the moneyline at even money.

The Under somehow hung on in Game 3 after three goals in the first seven minutes, and that’s a testament to the Knights’ defensive game plan. I’m leaning on the Under again here in Game 4, but the play of Oettinger has been too inconsistent, which is why I like the Knights to score three or more.

The Dallas team total Under 2.5 at +110 is in play tonight as well. Coming off a shutout, losing two forwards, and facing an elite defensive team does not project well for goals in an elimination game.

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Golden Knights vs Stars betting trend to know

The Golden Knights are 15-3 in their last 18 when their opponent scores two goals or fewer in their previous game. Find more NHL betting trends for Golden Knights vs. Stars.

Golden Knights vs Stars Game 4 game info

Location: American Airlines Arena, Dallas, TX
Date: Thursday, May 25, 2023
Puck drop: 8:00 p.m. ET

Golden Knights vs Stars Game 4 injuries

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